人工智能技术的迅猛发展，被认为是推动全球经济重塑、产生数万亿美元经济价值的主要动力。而且技术的快速迭代也预示着，我们所见到的生成式AI的力量仅仅初见端倪，未来将可能发生更有颠覆性的技术变革。这场技术革命究竟将造福于谁？哪些群体可能面临落后的风险？人类应当如何通过政策制定和伦理框架来确保这项技术能够为全社会带来利益？

       BI挪威商学院的两位学者Philipp Athanasiadis和Johannes Javorsky深入剖析了AI的双刃剑效应。一方面，AI对于生产力的提升预示着巨大的经济潜力；另一方面，它的快速进步也带来了对社会结构、就业安全以及人类价值观的挑战。

AI对人类幸福的隐与忧

       根据麦肯锡的报告《生成式AI的经济影响:下一个生产力前沿》(The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier)，科技行业已经描绘出一个由AI驱动的经济奇迹的乌托邦式未来。不过，商业的繁荣并不自动等同于社会福祉的提升。

       联合国《世界幸福报告》指出，幸福感并非直接由GDP驱动，而是更多地受到非物质因素的影响。越来越多的国家开始意识到，人民的幸福感并非仅由GDP决定，还包括健康、安全、自由和稳定等因素。因此，在巨大的经济潜力之下，可能随之而来的对就业、社会公平等方面的负面影响，将会成为技术发展的高昂代价。

       人类一部分的幸福感，来自于他在生活中致力于一些有意义的事情。渴望达到一个目标，是一个人实现自我的重要方式，也是许多人生活的基础。但若是这些能带来意义感的事情被AI取代了呢？全球范围内，AI将加深富裕国家与贫穷国家之间的差距。发达国家利用新技术获取更多收益，而发展中国家则可能进一步落后。此外，AI对低技能工人的影响最大，甚至还可能取代一些新兴的工作防伪，从而加剧了社会分层。

       甚至还有不少担忧来自于社交媒体信息的不可控。社交媒体上的信息通道大多受算法控制，这影响了我们所见、所感、所想。已经有部分研究研究表明，AI最大的危险之一是为了经济利益或政治优势而被操纵，这不得不被纳入监管的考量。

技术革命亟待引导与监管

       当然，AI在各种应用领域都有积极的一面。它提高了天气预报的准确性，辅助医生进行诊断，支持空中交通管制员确保安全的飞行路线。在这些领域，AI都起到了补充人类技能的辅助作用，而非取代他们。监管者面临的挑战在于如何界定AI辅助人类的界限，而不是夺走人类的工作。毕竟，AI存在的意义不是取代我们，而是支持我们。

       尽管AI有可能带来经济繁荣，但它也可能给社会福祉、就业市场和民主制度带来负面影响。为了确保AI能为全社会带来利益，我们需要政策制定者、科技公司以及整个社会共同参与，制定出一套全面的伦理框架和监管措施。只有这样，我们才能确保AI技术的发展不仅能够创造经济价值，而且能够提升人类的幸福和社会福祉。

原文：Generative AI: A bright future ahead of us – but for whom?，来自BI Business Review，作者：Philipp Athanasiadis（MSc student at BI）与Johannes Javorsky（MSc student at BI）

       The AI revolution may completely reshape the global economy and add trillions of dollars in value through increased productivity. But who stands to gain the most? And who might be left behind?

       Unparalleled efficiency, accelerated research and innovation, and widespread technical automation will transform how businesses create value.

       At the same time, the speed at which this technology advances hints that this is only the beginning of generative AI’s true power.

       So, what does this mean for you and me?

Measuring well-being

       In a report published last year, McKinsey refers to generative AI as “the next productivity frontier”. Indeed, the tech industry has painted a utopian future of incredible economic potential that will be powered by AI.

       However, businesses thriving does not automatically translate to improving well-being in society. Acknowledging this, more and more countries have recently started assessing their success by the happiness of their people. So, what makes us happy?

       According to the UN’s World Happiness Report, research has shown that happiness is not directly driven by GDP, but rather measured by factors such as health, safety, freedom, and stability.

       It is evident that the AI revolution will not just bring economic potential but also impact other areas of our life. With its current direction, AI will disrupt employment, increase inequality, and even threaten democracy – a high price to pay for increased profits of the narrow elite.

The purpose of it all

       Many people strive to work on something meaningful, something bigger than themselves. They aspire to reach a feeling of purpose and contribute to the greater good. Not only is this the foundation for one’s self-realization, but also the basis of life.

       But what if AI takes that away from you?

       Big-tech firms promise us heaven on earth, with AI only replacing undesirable jobs and ensuring wealth and comfort for everyone. But the reality will look harshly different.

       With AI impacting 40% of jobs globally, more than 60% of employees in developed countries will be affected, according to a recent analysis from the IMF. Further, advanced economies will most likely face the most severe impact on their labor markets, with higher unemployment and lower wages being the possible results of today’s rather naïve handling of AI.

AI: leading to equally unequal societies

       Globally, AI will drive the wedge between rich and poor countries even deeper. As primarily developed countries will leverage this new technology, developing countries will fall even further behind. Moreover, a lack of human capital and labor market policies in developing economies poses a key challenge in dealing with the impact of AI.

       Unregulated AI will undoubtedly transform the labor market fundamentally. The critical aspect is that AI will affect low-skilled workers the most and thus widen the social gap, leading to a social divide.

       Even worse, in the foreseeable future, AI will also replace newly created jobs. Consequently, unregulated AI not only divides societies globally but also pushes people to the edge of society.

Democracy in the age of AI

       Strong institutions are part of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and represent the foundation of our society as we know it today.

       However, society has changed a lot in recent years, and the rise of AI threatens to undermine freedom, societal cohesion, and democracy. With most information nowadays being consumed through social media, there is reason to be worried.

       The most used information channels are controlled by algorithms that impact what we see, feel, and think. They can influence elections, spread misinformation through deep-fakes, and censor content that big-tech CEOs deem unfavorable. Several studies have indicated that one of the most pressing dangers of AI is manipulation for economic gain or political advantage.

Is AI just bad?

       Of course, AI can have a positive impact in various areas of applications. These include enhancing the accuracy of weather forecasts while simultaneously consuming less time and energy, aiding doctors in their diagnoses, or supporting air traffic controllers in securing safe flight routes.

       However, these are areas where AI complements human skills and does not replace them.

       It is a thin line for regulators to shape technological adoption and define these areas where AI aids humans in fulfilling their purpose rather than taking it away. After all, AI is not here to replace but to support us.

Regulating a technological revolution

       As a society, we depend on policymakers to guide the design and implementation of these technologies.

       However, with experts questioning institutions’ ability to govern this technology, we must now require responsibility and accountability from those at the core of this revolution: the big tech industry.

（This essay is the winner of BI's Opinion Essay Competition for the Spring 2024 semester. ）

Link |

https://www.bi.edu/research/business-review/articles/2024/04/generative-ai-a-bright-future-ahead-of-us--but-for-whom/