市场营销学系学术讲座

时    间：4月12日（周二）下午14:00

地    点：腾讯会议

会议号：609-162-274  密码：670670

主    题：Information sampling explains Bayesian decision makers’ biases in correlation judgment

主 讲人：何黎胜 副教授

主 持人： 殷云露 老师

摘     要：

Correlation judgments are at the core of belief formation in economic and managerial settings. Investors may rely on a stock’s past performance to predict future performance, guiding financial decisions. Business leaders may use successful cases to judge the effectiveness of a strategy to support business decisions. However, people are fallible to various judgmental biases when dealing with correlations. In the studies of bivariate correlation judgment using 2D scatterplots, decision makers have been found to underestimate correlations, and display stronger biases when the scatterplot is shown in a landscape view than in a portrait view. Yet, it is unclear how these biases arise. Here, we propose that decision makers are Bayesian learners who perform “mental regression” using the observed data points (in the graph).  Accordingly, judgment errors can arise from biased visual information sampling. We test our model’s predictions with two eye-tracking experiments and find that the Bayesian learning model, applied to information obtained from visual fixation data, replicates classic behavioral findings. The model also predicts trial-level estimation biases at a high accuracy level. Our study shows how computational models trained on process-level data can shed light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying belief formation, and yields theory-driven practical implications for data visualization and information communication.

主讲人简介：

何黎胜博士，上海大学悉尼工商学院副教授，中国心理学会决策心理学专业委员会委员。何黎胜博士的研究方向是决策心理学与行为经济学，他将实验和方法计算建模相结合，揭示管理与经济决策行为的认知情感机制。其论文发表于Management Science, Psychological Review, Cognitive Psychology, Decision和NeuroImage等国际知名学术期刊。

市场营销学系

2022-4-6