现代产业经济学系列讲座第277期
时 间：2024年12月24日（周二） 13:30-15:00
地 点：复旦管院思源楼326室
题 目：Cost Uncertainty, Supply Chain and Insider Trading
主讲人：孙汉文 副教授（英国巴斯大学）
主持人：古定威 副教授
摘 要：
We examine the interplay between upstream and downstream production cost uncertainty (PCU) and managerial trading behavior. Our theoretical model demonstrates that cost uncertainty incentivizes managers to manipulate production activities, which propagate through supply chain linkages via input-output connections. This transmission amplifies cost information advantage, resulting in increased insider trading profitability and potentially enhancing firm value. Empirical evidence confirms that higher PCU in supply chains increases both insider trading profitability and the firm value of focal firms. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variables (IV) approach, leveraging industry-level merger and acquisition (M&A) wave as an exogenous shock to supply chain cost uncertainties. Our findings contribute to the understanding of how economic links in supply chains and managerial incentives interact, offering a novel perspective on the role of cost information in shaping insider trading behavior and firm valuation.
主讲人简介:
孙汉文，英国巴斯大学管理学院会计金融系长聘副教授。研究方向集中于公司金融和资本市场，包括内幕交易，卖空，公司创新以及信息中介等。研究结果发表于 Research Policy, Journal of Corporate Finance, Journal of Empirical Finance, 以及Journal of Accounting and Public Policy等国际期刊。其内幕交易研究项目获得英国国家科学院等资助。
现代产业经济学系
2025-12-23
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