现代产业经济学系列讲座第246期

时间：2023年7月18日（周二）15:30-17:00

地点：管理学院思源楼326室

题目：Theory and Methods for Computing General Equilibrium Models with Policy Instruments

主讲人：Anton Yang 博士耶鲁大学耶鲁托宾经济政策研究中心

主持人：俞学文青年副研究员

摘要：In his talk, Dr. Yang will be exploring different “schools” of contemporary Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling, namely the "Australian School" (Centre of Policy Studies/Global Trade Analysis Project or GTAP), the "Colorado School" (University of Colorado Boulder), and the "Yale School" (Yale University/Cowles Foundation). He will be providing insight from his own perspective, showcasing how each of these schools applies the 4-equation Armington system to achieve nuanced techniques and calculate counterfactual outcomes. Later, this talk will delve into an alternative method, an innovative method for computing GE models that essentially calibrates them to the initial equilibrium's likelihood. This method, which originated from Dr. Yang’s doctoral research, helps overcome the difficulties associated with more complex models, such as implicit demand models, where the direct application of hat formulae or mixed complementarity problems may become troublesome. Towards the end of his presentation, Dr. Yang will highlight the “inherent weaknesses” of applied general equilibrium models, particularly when analyzing trade policy scenarios involving exogenous policy instruments. Hence, it is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of the modeling technique and instruments before simulating the trade scenarios.

个人简介：Dr. Yang is a trade economist whose primary research focuses on empirical and spatial patterns of supply and demand in structural models. He obtained his PhD from Purdue University, where he holds an affiliated teaching and research associate position. His research interests are international trade, agricultural economics, industrial organization and applied econometrics. He has received multiple research grants from the US Department of Agriculture and the UK government. Moreover, Dr. Yang has work experience in the US International Trade Commission and other agencies. He has also served as a technical consultant to the Executive Office of the U.S. President and the chief modeler of US government’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) study.