现代产业经济学系列讲座第137期

时间: 2016年9月13日（周二） 13:30-15:30

地点：思源楼326室

主持人：李玲芳 副教授

主题：Payoff-based Belief Distortion

主讲人：Peiran Jiao (University of Oxford)

Abstract: This paper offers a simple model where experienced payoffs influence subsequent choices through two channels: reinforcement learning and a payoff-based belief distortion. In the first channel, past rewards from an action increases the probability of that action being retaken subsequently. The second channel involves the agent updating beliefs by underweighting evidence that contradicts experienced gain/loss, and maximizing expected utility given distorted beliefs. Three experiments tested the model predictions. A common feature of all experiments is that experienced gain/loss was information-free, i.e. bearing no informational value for Bayesian updating. The first two experiments exogenously manipulated the experience of gain/loss, and found participants' beliefs as well as their updating process to be biased. The third experiment allowed participants to obtain experience endogenously in an asset buying task with clear tension between Bayesian and reinforcement strategies. Participants' beliefs were distorted, and their buying decisions exhibited overweighting of (especially recent) experienced payoffs relative to the Bayesian benchmark.

Bio: Peiran Jiao is a postdoctoral research fellow at Nuffield College and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, UK. He holds a PhD in Economics from Claremont Graduate University, California, USA. His main research interests are behavioural and experimental finance/economics. His current projects focus on (1) individual investors’ experience-based learning, (2) media sentiments and the stock market, and (3) learning under different information conditions in games. He also worked on neurofinance, studying the effect of hormones on trading behaviour and market dynamics.

产业经济学系

2016-9-2