现代企业管理系列讲座（第96期）

时间：2016年4月8日 11:00-12:30

地 点：思源楼424室

主持人：何晓斌 助理教授

主题 ： The Impact of Learning and Overconfidence on Entrepreneurial Entry and Exit

主讲嘉宾：Prof. Dan Elfenbein

Abstract：

While interest in learning in the context of entrepreneurship is growing, extant research often treats pre-entry learning that shapes the entry decision in isolation from post-entry learning that shapes the exit/continuation decision. We examine how learning, opportunity (entry) cost, endogenous entry and exit decisions, and behavioral bias shape the aggregate patterns of entry, exit, and profit accrual. We find that entrants’ beliefs exceed the true latent success probability. Moreover, we observe endogenous positive correlations between opportunity cost and exit delay, and between over-precision and optimism in the population of entrants and survivors. We also show that agents whose profile of biases generate the worst results are the ones who are most likely to enter the market.

Bio：

Dan Elfenbein received his Ph.D. in Business Economics jointly from Harvard Business School and Harvard’s economics department. He has been at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis since 2005. Dan’s current research focuses on how firms and employees create and appropriate value through reputations and relationships, on entrepreneurial entry and exit etc. His research has been published in Management Science, Organization Science, Strategic Management Journal, Review of Economic Studies, RAND Journal of Economics, American Economic Journal etc. Prior to academia, Dan worked as a strategy consultant at Monitor Company and as an economist in the President’s Council of Economic Advisers.